Why I Think Georgia Could Win It All

Well it's early June, and where the hell is college football? How much longer do we have to wait? On second thought, don't show me the days count down. Don't do it! It will only make the dog days of summer stretch farther out in my mind.

I know no better way to scratch that itch than to start fathoming fantastic scenarios in which my beloved Georgia Bulldogs meet and exceed all expectations, win the tight ones, smite our rivals, shower in confetti in Atlanta, and bring home the crystal. Accordingly, here are a few reasons why I think (not predict or promise, mind you) that Georgia could win it all this year ...

1) The Schedule
Oh the schedule. If there was any doubt that God is a Georgia fan, surely this has put all arguments to rest. No Bama, no LSU, and no Arkansas. True, we do travel to Columbia and the Loveliest Village on the Plains, but I'm not biting my nails over either. While Carolina always fades as the season progresses, I take heart in the knowledge that we no longer play them on that Godforsaken, voodoo doctor cursed second Saturday. Someone somewhere must have sacrificed a fearless and tyrannical rooster as payment to the football gods so that they would smile brightly upon the Carolina Chickens each time they played us. But that evil is no more. And as for Auburn, I like who they bring back and I like the coaching changes, but the results won't be instant. (See Florida, last year)

2) Aaron Murray, Our Fearless 3rd Year Leader
Historically, talented third year QBs have had huge years that showed not only in the box score but also in wins. Statistically speaking, Murray had a record-breaking year for Georgia last year in a few regards. No, he hasn't won more games than David Greene, and no, he didn't win an SEC Championship or better. But as a true sophomore, he put up some eye-opening numbers especially when you consider he doesn't man one of those new-fangled, video game spread offenses.
All that is great, but here is what I care about. He increased his TDs and reduced his INTs. He improved as a decision maker, and he proved to be very tough and durable. He did this with a relatively new crop of receivers, a group which he will now feel more comfortable with.
Yes, he'll miss Ben Jones. But Murray established himself as a leader, and he should have his best year yet this fall. If that happens, Georgia will be dangerous on offense.

3) The SEC East is Still Down
Where have we heard this before? It's basically Georgia and South Carolina, and once again, I think whoever wins that game will have the inside track to Atlanta. Some people have picked Florida to win the East. With all do respect, I think those people have early onset dementia. Florida will be better, but they will not improve enough on offense to scare the Dawgs or the Gamecocks. Vanderbilt will be better, but Grantham has circled that game on the calendar. No way Georgia loses to the petulant Franklin. Tennessee could win 9 games or 6. I'd say the safer bet is closer to 6, probably 7 wins for Smokey and his blown ACL. And, as stated above, Georgia gets the Old Ball Coach in October. By then, the habitually slow starting Dawgs will be hitting all cylinders like a stock car at Talladega, and the OLB and his crew of Gamecocks will be slowly imploding. (See http://tinyurl.com/7ev7u6f )


4) Year 2 of New Conditioning
This doesn't require much explanation. Georgia fans know that the Dawgs were beaten in the 4th quarter time and again in 2009 and 2010. But in the offseason last year, we overhauled our Strength & Conditioning program and the on-field transformation was like watching a prize-fighter take the weights out of his gloves. We were faster and stronger, and were both of those things when it mattered most -- late in games. If the improvement continues, Georgia should be one of the best conditioned teams in the country.

5) The Defense
I hope you made it this far with me, because here is where the rubber meets the road. This should be an easy one. The 5th ranked defense returns 10 starters and the best defensive player in the country. Unfortunately, there is more to the story. Our secondary has been ravaged by suspensions due to arrests off-the-field issues during the off season. (NOTE: this is a important issue going forward as Georgia is notorious for being its own biggest enemy)
While the loss of Commings, Smith, Rambo, and Olgetree - some for multiple games - is a serious cause for concern, therein lies the rub. And, I think, this is the key to why Georgia could win the SEC and the National Championship.
Last year, we had a premier defense in only Grantham's second year at the helm. And I think we were great for, if I can be simplistic, two reasons: 1) our front 7, lead by Jarvis Jones, was beastly; and 2) Shawn Williams.
First, I'll address the latter. Williams did not receive the accolades that Jones, Rambo, or Brandon Boykin rightly had bestowed upon them. But, my untrained eyes told me that he was the on-field emotional leader and, in some respects, most indispensable player. Williams' maturity cannot be measured in the box score. He consistently got the secondary in proper alignment and always seemed to make a play that woke the defense up. As long as Williams is on the field, I'm confident.
But, truth be told, the front 7 is really what made the 2011 defense great. Many prognosticators are concerned about how our young secondary will fare while the aforementioned veterans are watching form the sideline. I think this handwringing is overblown.
In the regular season, only two teams managed to pass for more than 250 yards against Georgia. Boise went for 261 and Tennessee went for 290. Tennessee was an odd game, and since it was never in question, I'll only look at Boise.
It was the first game of the season, and the defense's worst performance of the regular season. The key observation is that Boise was successful with the pass because they utilized a quick, short passing game to neutralize our pass rush. In other words, the only team that hurt us with the pass didn't do so by picking on our secondary, but by taking our front 7 out of the game. For that reason, I don't share the concern of others that our defense will be a shell of itself while Commings, Rambo, and Smith are suspended.
Now, that begs the question. Is there any team early on that can replicate Boise's short passing game plan? I hate to admit it, but Missouri is such a team. I think that if Georgia can beat Missouri, we'll roll into Atlanta undefeated and substantially less beat up than a Bama or LSU. And yet, of all the games on our schedule, I fear Missouri the most. A win in Columbia would make our season, and a lose could break it.
If I were impartial, I'd still pick Georgia. Mizzou will surely be amped for its first SEC game, but Georgia is both an athletically superior team and one more accustomed to big games.
Beat Missouri, and I think Georgia could win it all.