Georgia Bulldogs - 2012 Season Prediction

Like a junkie with no plans of rehabilitation and overcome with need to start tweaking again, we've been waiting for the fix only that only the first day in September can provide.

College football. It's. Almost. Here.

And here, we're going to talk about Georgia football. More specifically, I'm going to do a little breakdown of the team, the schedule, the hopes and dreams, the fears and frustrations, and cap it off with a grandiose prediction. Last year, my foresight was basically spot on. It was, admittedly, slightly optimistic, but I aim to adjust for said excitement and fandom, see above and above.

I'm going to break this into three sections. Yes, I'm channeling the Trinity here. God may not be a Dawgs fan. I don't know if He is or isn't. I've never asked. But, I don't see the harm in asking for a little help.

1. Thoughts about the 2012 Team

Any discussion about Georgia must start with the defense and, more specifically, the front seven. J. Jones,  Jenkins, Geathers, Washington, A. Jones, and Tree all return. Last year, the front seven was, in my opinion, the primary reason for our success. Championship caliber teams are comprised of many qualities, and while some are more necessary than others, an elite defensive pass rush is the only common denominator. As long as #29 is on the field, I won't be worried.

Unsurprisingly, the state of affairs on the offensive side of the ball is again colored by anxiety, scuttlebutt, and the unknown.
Can the offensive line stay healthy? What are we to make of Bobo's statements that the offense will be WR-oriented? How potent will the run game be, helmed by a group of backups-become-starters and highly touted true freshmen?
For me, the question isn't whether the offense will be able to put up points. For the past few years it has, on average, been pretty electric. The true question is whether we will be able to be effective in the big game against a big time defense. Will we be able to execute?

If history is any indicator, Aaron Murray will have a huge year. He will be a third-year starter, with two years of steady improvement, with ample weapons around him, without any doubt that he our QB and our team leader.

2. Dangerous Games

Like 2011, the schedule is about as friendly as any Dawg fan could ever hope. No Bama, LSU, or Arkansas. Auburn and Tennessee are still rebuilding. Florida, in my opinion, will not be as dangerous as many pundits have prognosticated. Yes, their defense will be fast and talented. But, I see no support for the suggestion that the offense will be any better than it was last year. New offensive scheme, no Demps, no Rainey, and no established quarterback. Unfortunately, that game will still be played on Halloween weekend in Jacksonville. For some inexplicable reason, that game is always a death match prelude to a bitter, coin-flip end. I have no other explanation aside from the horrifying and the occult -- things go bump in the night. No one will be surprised if the game is ultimately decided by some combination of a controversial call, a fluky special teams play, and an unheralded hero.

It is not hard to foresee where the rubber will meet the road. The dates with Missouri and South Carolina are the most dangerous. On paper, I'm less concerned by Mizzou than the Old Ball Coach, but we are perennial slow starters, and we visit the Tigers in Week 2.
The irony cannot be missed. Historically, our trip to Columbia, South Carolina has resulted in defeat and despair. This year, we get Carolina in October, but we'll still be on the road, in Week 2, in a town called Columbia. Now you understand my shameless overture towards the Man upstairs. A loss to Missouri, an inferior team in almost every category, would be devastating. This game is not dangerous because we may lose, it is dangerous because what a loss to lesser team would do to our confidence.
I won't spill too many words over the South Carolina game because every true Dawg fan knows the history, the scene, and the stakes. Should we enter that game undefeated, should we battle a Carolina team at full strength, and should we emerge victorious, an SEC Championship and a trip to the biggest game of all is not unlikely.

3. Oh, Crystal Ball, What Say Ye?

I like the way I did this last year, so let's not fix somethin that ain't broke. The Bad, the Likely, the Dream ...

The Bad:

For the thirty-seventh time, we start the season slow. Missouri torches our suspension-riddle secondary for 21 points in the first half and we start 1-1.
Bobo, who has waited his whole professional life for a season when the running game and tight ends are unproven, tragically attempts to recreate the Spurrier Florida teams that torched his Dawgs teams when he was an unheralded QB throwing weak 15-yard outs. We're unbalanced on offense all season, never develop Marshall or Gurley, and perpetually give the defense short fields.
Throw in a few injuries along the lines, and we finish 8-4, with losses to Missouri, Tennessee, South Carolina, and Georgia Tech.

The Likely:

We have a stronger season than last year, one that proves the program is continuing to move in the right direction. But, the detractors who pointed out the uncomfortable fact that the 10-4 2011 team lost to the four best teams it played against are proven prescient.
The defense produces another top 5 season, Murray puts up great numbers, and the young RBs show glimpses of a bright future. Perhaps more importantly, having cut the fat, we avoid off-the-field distractions and team chemistry gets back to 2008 levels.
But, special teams play costs us a game and we get out-coached in a prime time showdown against Spurrier, who continues to play chess while Richt plays checkers.
We finish 11-1, and win the East by virtue of Carolina's two loses to LSU and Arkansas. We play hard in the SEC Championship game and are close in the third quarter, but lose for the second time to LSU.
With a loss in our last game of the regular season, we miss out on a BCS at-large bid.

The Dream:

The rumors coming out of fall camp about the defense prove to be modest appraisals. In his third year, Grantham finally feels comfortable enough to break out his NFL-style exotic coverages that will give college QBs migraines. Mitchell blossoms in his two-way role. Jarvis Jones is the most disruptive defensive player in the nation.
Murray, who by accounts worked harder than any player on the team in the offseason, absolutely explodes and earns a trip to the Heisman ceremony. The passing game is so potent that even Bobo's allergic nature toward the running game can't stop Marshall and Gurley from churning up chunks of yards on the ground because defenses are on their heels.
The fruits of the previous two recruiting classes are harvested between the hedges, before 92,000 eyes. On the two-deep, we are faster and more talented than every team we meet in the regular season, South Carolina included.
A combination of Grantham, his insatiable intensity and single-mindedness for success, and the embarrassment of losing the last two games last season rubs off on Richt to embrace a higher level of preparation, and we are not out-coahced in any game.

Now, this next part is important. Who we meet in Atlanta matters. Matchups matter.
We can't beat LSU. Their defensive line and secondary are too good. Am I really supposed to believe Bobo can out-scheme Chavis? It ain't gonna happen. Will it be a close game? Yes. But remember one simple fact. Last year, LSU's offense was actually quite putrid. But our offense was rendered so ineffective by the second quarter, the defense died a slow, exhausted, painful death. This year? LSU will field a better offense.
We can beat Alabama because we matchup well against them. Saban is the best coach in the nation, but  his model is not great because it is complicated, it is great when his defense is seasoned and impenetrable. The '12 Bama team will be better than the '11 team, but the weakness is the same -- a supremely talent but young and untested defense. Simply put, while our defensive line isn't better than Bama's O-line, our defensive is better than Bama's offense. And therein lies the rub. Bama's offense will be better than it's defense, and our best unit (our defense) is better than Bama's best unit. The same can't be said for us against LSU.
Will it be a knife fight? Of course. Saban will not go quietly into the night. But if we arrive in Atlanta at 12-0, I think we beat Bama -- even if they are 12-0 too.
You see, we actually have the blueprint for beating Bama. As much as I was once on the LSU bandwagon last year, the Tiger's win in Tuscaloosa was actually a fluke. Bama was the better team. That's easy to say now because Miles has adopted the same model as Saban. And because Saban generally fields slightly more talented teams than Miles does, and because Saban is a better coach than Miles, reason stands that Saban will beat Miles when it matters most. And he has.
Georgia, on the other hand, employs the one model that can beat Saban's. Georgia, by virtue of it's aggressive offensive scheme, is more balanced than Bama's clearly defense-above-offense scheme. Every few years, two of the last three to be exact, Bama fields a defense that simply will not concede more than 10 points a game. I can confidently say that Saban will not have such a defense this year.
For that reason, should we meet the Crimson Tide in December, I believe we will win because we will be the better team.

THE PREDICTION:

I promised that I would temper my optimism, and so I feel resigned to lean more towards the "Likely" than the "Dream." Without question, a championship season turns on a thousand moments when a play is made, a penalty is or isn't called, or an injury doesn't happen more than anything that has to do with X's and O's.
Does Georgia have a championship caliber team? It isn't a hard "yes," but it's still a "yes."
Essentially, the odds that we make it back to Atlanta are quite strong, but calling for a win after the pigskin is kicked off in the Georgia Dome is hard to guarantee.
I think we'll be there. Where we'll be three hours later is harder to say.
But, that's why they play the game.

GO DAWGS!!!!