Who Will Reign Supreme in 2011: Review A

Welcome back to best college football blog that no one knows about! It's the last week of September, and that means a few things. For most of the country, Fall has returned. ALL OF YOU CAN GO TO HELL!!! It was 92 degrees in Tallahassee today, and my personal rebellion of wearing jeans because that's-what-I should-be able-to-do has done nothing to bring about cooler temperatures, and has most likely contributed to a few unfortunate, less-than-adequate deodorant days. It also means most teams have played four games, and at least one being against a conference opponent, which means we have a legitimate sample size to review how my predictions are holding up. Away we go ...

1. Alabama (Conference Champion)
-- No issues here. Currently #2 in both polls, and all appears to be well in Tuscaloosa. The defense - specifically, the secondary and linebackers - is scarier that The Blair Witch Project for opposing offenses. A solid win over Arkansas, albeit at home, confirms that this Bama team is as advertised, i.e. a favorite to win the National Championship.

2. Oklahoma (Conference Champion)
-- The preseason #1 finds itself at #3 this week, and largely through no fault of its own. The Sooners beat then #5 FSU in Tallahassee, which stands as the only win against a top 5 team this season. But that win was mitigated by the early departure of EJ Manuel, and the fact that FSU still took the game to the wire. While it may have mostly been a case of a talented, resilient FSU team that refused to go quietly into the night, Oklahoma has dropped to #3 in large part due to the dominance of LSU and Alabama. CAVEAT: the last time a preseason #1 got demoted early on without losing a game was Georgia in 2009. And while Oklahoma is in much better physical shape than that injury-riddled Georgia team that ultimately finished with 3 loses, there are still similarities. The most important being this -- no one is saying Oklahoma isn't a very good team, but people are pretty sure there are two teams that are clearly better.

3. FSU (Conference Champion)
-- The phrase "snake bitten" comes to mind. We'll never know if FSU would have beaten Oklahoma had EJ Manuel not been knocked out of the game with a shoulder injury, but the Seminoles, with a RS Freshman QB playing in his first college football game, forced Oklahoma to win the game. FSU then caught a hot and supremely confident Clemson team in Death Valley, fresh off snapping Auburn's 17 game winning streak. And still, FSU took it to the final snap, only losing by 5. The heart of this young team is clear, and these trials of adversity will pay dividends later down the road. But the loss of Manuel, FSU's quarterback and recognized team leader, cannot be overstated.

4. LSU
-- It's Les Miles crazy dream, and we're just living in it. LSU currently sits atop the mountain, and rightly so. The Tigers have beaten 3 ranked teams in resounding fashion, all in the FIRST FOUR GAMES OF THE SEASON. The defense is poetry in motion, a wild spirit of precision and destruction that can only be observed, never tamed. But many words have been written about LSU's defensive prowess. Instead, I'll direct you to my original Top 10 prediction post (which had LSU at #1) and then my revision (which had LSU at #4). I dropped the Tigers SOLELY because Miles had made the incredulous decision to stick with Jordan Jefferson at QB, something I simply didn't expect. But outside forces did Miles a favor when Jefferson was arrested for allegedly kicking a man outside of a bar. That is not meant to lessen the seriousness of Jefferson's current situation, or to poke fun at it. It is simply to recognize that the emergence of Jarrett Lee has represented a substantial improvement at QB, and questions at that position coming into this season is the ONLY reason why I didn't have LSU at #1.

5. Nebraska (Conference Champion)
-- An unknown quantity in this bunch, a team that hasn't faced a true test thus far. Nonetheless, the results up to this point have been a few degrees less than barn storming. Accordingly, Nebraska has crept up the rankings, and currently sits at #8. Wisconsin awaits in 6 days time.

6. Oregon (Conference Champion)
-- Despite being manhandled by LSU to the tune of 40-27 on a neutral site, the Ducks fell too far down in the polls. They've made it back to #9 on the strength of a few Oregon-like offensive explosions against PAC 12 foes. Considering the state of chaos in the PAC 12, and Stanford's recent rash of devastating injuries, a conference championship and top 8 finish is still very much in the cards for the Ducks.

7. Virginia Tech
-- See, Nebraska. We'll know more after Clemson leaves Blacksburg.

8. Notre Dame
-- Strike one! Big swing and miss here. I admit it. It isn't an important question for the purposes of this particular discussion, but I must ask it: is Notre Dame simply a work in progress, was Brian Kelly oversold, or has Notre Dame - as a football institution - fallen too far behind the times?

9. Boise St. (Conference Champion)
-- The Broncos currently sit at #4, and Peterson's and Moore's stock has never been higher. I admit it, I initially slated Boise at #9 because I thought my Dawgs would beat the Broncos in week 1. My heart talked louder than my head. So I will make amends. The Broncos will go undefeated this year, and they'll finish top 4 at the very worst.

10. Texas A&M
-- I couldn't really decide between A&M, Oklahoma St, Wisconsin, and South Carolina as to who should slide into the final spot in my Top 10. I thought each of the four were due for a minimum of two loses, and I believed that A&M wouldn't lose against bad teams and wound manage to beat some very good ones, meaning they would finish at #10. They very well may still land at #10. The Aggies lost to a very good, and a very emotional Oklahoma St team. We'll just have to wait and see.

OVERSIGHTS, NEVER APOLOGIES

Wisconsin -- Even with Russell Wilson, the Badgers are not in the realm of the LSU's, Alabama's, and Oklahoma's. But I must admit that I underestimated the impact a gifted and mature player like Wilson would have on a team that lost very little from last year, and was probably held back by quarterback play in the grand scheme of things. I still don't think Wisconsin is a top 5 team, but they haven't had the chance to prove me wrong yet. But they do deserve a spot in the top 10, and I was wrong to exclude them.

Oklahoma St -- I really can't be faulted much for this, considering that people who get paid big money to predict these things also didn't find the Cowboys deserving of uncontested top 10 consideration. There were simply too many question marks. How would the offense perform without Holgorsen, and with an OC who was taught the offense by the quarterback? How could a team with a perennial mediocre defense manage to keep up with Oklahoma and A&M, teams with equally prolific offenses and supposedly superior defenses? Well, the Cowboys have answered a few of those questions in impressive fashion.
And I'll even go a step further. OK St doesn't face Oklahoma until December 3rd, but the game is in Stillwater, and if it they played this weekend instead, I'd take the Cowboys. Maybe OK St was just playing inspired ball this past Saturday, but I saw a defense good enough to slow down Landry and Co., and I think the Cowboys are more explosion on offense.
The ebbs and flows of a season can change the complexion of a game, while not always more so, but in a different way than simple X's and O's. No one knows what the Bedlam matchup will mean for these two teams, but it very well could mean an undefeated season and potential National Championship game for the Cowboys. And I'm not alone in failing to foresee that scenario for the Fighting Gundy's.