Who Will Reign Supreme in 2011: Updated

A few months ago, before spring ball, the summer, the arrival of highly touted freshmen, and the beginning of fall practices, I wrote a post titled "Who Will Reign Supreme in 2011" that started with Andy Staples's early preseason rankings and ended with my own predictions about what the final Top 10 rankings would look like heading into bowl season. A link to that post is here: http://highdraws.blogspot.com/2011/04/who-will-reign-supreme-in-2011.html
The reason, I thought, for giving my vision of the top 10 BEFORE the bowls are played was clear: the outcomes of the bowl games would change the rankings (ex. the loser of the national championship game would not stay at #2), thus distorting the layout of the bowl match-ups. I will do the same here. Therefore, the #1 and #2 teams should be understood as the participants in the national championship game. Good? Great!

Also aware of how lineups can change and stock can rise and fall in the months between spring and early fall, Staples has recently published his preseason rankings. As an AP voter and one of the college football writers whom I respect most, his rankings carry legitimacy. Here are his preseason top 25:

1. Oklahoma
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. LSU
5. Stanford
6. Texas A&M
7. Florida St.
8. South Carolina
9. Oklahoma St.
10. Boise St.
11. Wisconsin
12. Nebraska
13. Arkansas
14. Ohio St.
15. Michigan St.
16. TCU
17. Missouri
18. Auburn
19. Virginia Tech
20. West Virginia
21. Notre Dame
22. Mississippi St.
23. Arizona St.
24. Maryland
25. Utah

I won't get into much critiquing of Staples's rankings. It seems to me that for some he is trying to peer into the future (FSU, South Carolina, Auburn, Maryland) while others he is simply placing them somewhere close to where they finished last year (Stanford, Boise St, Notre Dame). I hope that is the explanation, because if his rankings are truly a snapshot of the best 25 teams in his mind, then his mind will soon be surprised.

In the interests of comparison, here are my previous top 10:

1. Oklahoma (Conference Champion)
2. LSU (Conference Champion)
3. FSU (Conference Champion)
4. Alabama
5. Ohio St. (Conference Champion)
6. Nebraska
7. Oregon (Conference Champion)
8. Texas A&M
9. Virginia Tech
10. Boise St. (Conference Champion)

I posted those rankings in early April. There have been developments for every college football team in the intervening months. Some have been as small as an injury to a starting lineman, and some have been as big as the resignation of a preeminent coach. It is suffice to say that things have changed since then.
My rankings will reflect these changes. Without further ado, the updated version of "Who Will Reign Supreme in 2011" ...

1. Alabama (Conference Champion)
2. Oklahoma (Conference Champion)
3. FSU (Conference Champion)
4. LSU
5. Nebraska (Conference Champion)
6. Oregon (Conference Champion)
7. Virginia Tech
8. Notre Dame
9. Boise St. (Conference Champion)
10. Texas A&M

Noticeably, I flipped Alabama and LSU. Three reasons:
1) I've warmed up to just how loaded Alabama is on defense. I'm very cold on their offense, but the defense could be better than the '09 version, and it was good enough to carry a less-than-great offense.
2) I thought LSU would give up on Jordan Jefferson by late summer, and hand over the reigns to Zack Mettenburger. They haven't, and it will cost them when they are forced to endure a season-long QB controversy as Jefferson continues to consternate.
3) I failed to adequately research LSU's schedule, and see how beastly it truly is. It will take an elite squad to emerge from that schedule unscathed. LSU will be very good, but not good enough to avoid dropping a game or two due simply to attrition.

Also, Ohio St. is OUT and Notre Dame is IN.
The reasons for the former are clear to anyone who has remotely followed college football over the past few months. The reasons for the latter are just as simple, though a bit more precarious: Notre Dame needs only to finish 10-2 or 11-1 and will always be guaranteed of a top 10 ranking. The Fighting Irish's resume could list victories against 6 high school teams, and the sports writers across the land would still lift them back to the top. Though Notre Dame doesn't play that weak of a schedule this year, it is still decidedly weak in comparison to the quality of athletes Notre Dame will run out onto the field each week, and a 10 win season is sure to follow.

And, many will notice that Arkansas still doesn't crack my Top 10. I was probably a little bold to leave them out of my original rankings, but the loss of Knile Davis to a season-ending injury will likely cost Arkansas a win somewhere. I just hesitate to place three SEC teams in the Top 10. This is not because I don't think there are three (if not four) SEC teams of that quality, but simply because most of them have to play each other and if Alabama and LSU are to finish in the top 5, that means that Arkansas will suffer two losses at a minimum. And the SEC has a knack for sticking good teams with at least one we-really-shouldn't-but-did losses each year.
Mark me down for predicting that if there is one other SEC team other than Bama and LSU that could finish near the Top 10, it is Georgia. The pieces are in place, and the schedule is ripe for a surprise run.

Continuing trends:
I'm bullish on FSU and Va Tech. The rest of the ACC is weak. When has Frank Beamer not finished with 10 wins, plus or minus a win? It's Year 2 for Jimbo Fisher. Year 2 was the breakout year for Meyer, Saban, and Chizik, and I look for Fisher to have similar results. Why? Because like Meyer and Saban (in their respective years of dominance), Fisher will send a team out onto the field that will be athletically superior to every squad it faces this year. That usually equals fantastic results if your coach isn't Ron Zook.
I'm bearish on Stanford and South Carolina. ATTN College football voters: Stanford a top 5 team? Really? South Carolina should be better than last year, but they have a tougher schedule and while I have great respect for Spurrier, the fact that Garcia is a ticking bomb and Lattimore showed a propensity for injury last year relegates me to viewing Carolina's prospects with skepticism. And even if South Carolina manages to go 10-2, they are almost assured to lose to either Alabama or LSU in the SEC championship.


So that is it, my prediction of what the top 10 will look like heading into bowl season.
And before I sign off, I'll answer the question I know you are screaming ...

Alabama beats Oklahoma in the BCS National Championship Game.