Georgia Bulldogs in 2011 - Post #10

This post will be a little different. Instead of looking at a facet of Georgia's team, I'm going to talk about the one SEC that will fall below expectations, and the one SEC team that is being overlooked. Also, I'll address the web chatter that is anointing Georgia as the dark horse of the SEC, and whether that is an apt choice.

BIG DISAPPOINTMENT -- LSU
Though my post-spring ball pick to win the SEC was LSU, I can't deny that of the three hyped SEC teams (LSU, Alabama, and South Carolina), LSU is the most likely to finish with a whimper instead of a bang. South Carolina is a lesser team, but it also plays in the weaker SEC East and its major non-conference game is against Clemson, a good team that may soon reach the next level, but not this year. I think Bama and LSU are very much alike, they have common weaknesses and question marks in similar places. But it is clear that Bama has a much friendlier schedule than does LSU. Simply put, LSU has a smaller margin for error. And so, though it seems counterintuitive to tab my post-spring favorite as the likeliest failure, the extenuating circumstances require the designation.

BIG SURPRISE -- FLORIDA
This is probably a surprise, and I admit that. But let me explain. The "Big Surprise" team must win at least 9 games.
I don't see Tennessee accomplishing such a feat. Their schedule is beastly, and they're still low on talent.
Mississippi St. seems to be a beneath-the-radar team, but I'm selling cowbell stock. They're in the West (which translates into "death row" this year), the offense won't be spectacular, and I think the absence of Manny Diaz will be harshly felt.
Ole Miss? No.
I'm most inclined to say Auburn could surprise people. Partly because so many are predicting the Tigers to struggle since they only return 8 starters, and mostly because a certain Heisman Trophy winner and 1st overall pick will no longer be playing QB in the Plains. But Chizik and company have recruited very well, Gus Malzahn is still the best OC in the country, and I think Auburn has built the type of foundation that allows programs to reload year in and year out.
But the 2010 NC bought Chizik a lot of time, and I for one think he will use it to build for 2012.
That leaves Florida, almost by default, but also because a few factors are playing in their favor.
The schedule isn't bad, the East is weak again, and I foresee the Muschamp era beginning with fewer hiccups than your normal transition of power. Meyer resigned (not fired), stayed around to help foster a sense of normalcy, and then the two big reasons why I think Florida could surprise people.
1) Smooth Transition
The coaches that couldn't help (like Addazio) left, and the ones that could (the better ones like the S&C coach) stayed. Then, in comes Muschamp and Weis - two coaches that have a long track record of first-year success in new places. The SEC is rarely gentle with first year coaches. 2011 Florida may be an exception.
2) They have the talent
The roster is still choked with big time players. Weis could transform Brantley into the QB he was touted as coming out of HS. There is a lot of speed and skill on offense, and Weis is probably one of the best offensive minds in the country so he will play the cards he's been dealt. Most importantly, the defense could be downright nasty if the D-line is as advertised coming out of spring ball. If there is one first principle in college football it is this: it is better to have a mediocre offense and a great defense than the other way around.

GEORGIA THE DARK HORSE?
Granted, most of the love Georgia got came earlier in the spring, post-recruiting boon and pre-Trinton Sturdivant injury. But there are still many smart college football people out there that have hinted at a resurgent 2011 for the Dawgs. Personally, I reluctantly say that this banter is probably a product of people believing that CMR has to improve dramatically for obvious reasons, and from the knowledge that he has produced great teams in the past, thus meaning he can do so again. So, these predictions come more from gut-feeling than X's and O's.
If I had to make a prediction, I'd say it's 60-40 that the Dawgs have a breakout year. Not a sure thing, but not a hope and a prayer either. I say that not because we return Murray and Charles. Not because I hope Crowell will be a beast. I say that because I think the defense may surprise people.
The D-line and the linebackers could be dominant. And I don't say that lightly, because Georgia hasn't been dominant at either unit in quite some time. But the pieces are there if they can fit together.
If those two units are as good as they can be, they should protect a weaker secondary than one would like. But that is just where I start to get optimistic. I don't see many teams on our schedule that will try to throw the ball a lot on us.
Boise is more balanced than people think, and they lost their best WR's to the draft.
Spurrier considers running the ball more than passing it to be similar to having a double root canal, but he knows Lattimore is his best player so he will be persuaded to lean on the running game.
Auburn, Tennessee, and especially Ga Tech don't have the players to rely heavily on the passing game.
I only worry about Florida, who will have adopted Weis's pro-style passing offense. But they don't yet have any big time WR's, and if they wisely choose to rely on their speedy playmakers, those players are RBs who I think our fast LBs can matchup with very well.

Don't get me wrong, I'll be the last person to say that I was surprised to see the Dawgs reel off a 10 win season. The talent is there, the coaching is there, the schedule is right, and I think the team is hungry. Some interesting quotes came out of the spring. Talk of addition by subtraction, of being rid of "cancerous" players who either were too lazy or too focused on their draft status. We'll see. If the leaders of the team are truly all in, then this could be a dangerous team come October. But like I said. We'll see.