Georgia Bulldogs in 2011

Ok, I'm having serious college football withdrawals, so this will be the first in a series of musings that I will post during the offseason. I'll probably post infrequently, as there's only so much you can postulate. But it should be fun and a good reference point for when the season is in swing. I'll see if I was right with my predictions and/or if Georgia is able to address the things my admittedly non-football savvy mind can identify. Lezgo!

Topic #1 - Will Georgia's offense be consistent in 2011 because of/in spite of Coach Bobo?

Studying Georgia's offensive production in 2010 is a prime example of how simple statistics can be misleading. Georgia ranked in the top 40 in most offensive statistical categories, whether it was yards per game or points per game. Many people cited this as support for Bobo and the offense, and reverted to the "give Grantham and the D another year to develop" argument. Look a little closer, and you'll find that we ran the score up on bad teams and didn't do squat against the good ones. Stats can be useful, but primarily subscribe to the "eye ball test." Simply put, we didn't pass that test.
Much has been said about our S&C issues, and for good reason, but I think the major issue was schematic. For the majority of Bobo's tenure, we've been predictable and relatively unwilling to adapt to our personnel.
Being predictable is never good, and I don't think I have to pen much in support of that argument. You can't fool the defense on every play, but if they know where you're going, they have a better chance at stopping you than you do beating them. There are a host of things that have to go right on every single play for an offense to be successful, but all the defense has to do is have one guy be in the right place to blow up the play.
Adapting to personell is more complicated issue. Good teams have identities, and it's smart to stick to what you do best. But there in lies the rub, if you want to stick to your identity, you have to recruit players that excel in that role. If you don't have those players, you have to implement a scheme that utilizes their strengths. Unfortunately, Georgia has done neither.
2008 appears to disprove Bobo's schematic flaw, but the truth is that team had a veteran defense that created turnovers and often gave the offense a short field.

Looking ahead to 2011, there are many reasons to be skeptical. Murray returns and, if he improves, will be the best QB in the SEC. Crowell, even if he struggles at times, will be an improvement at RB and will give us the big play threat at that position that we haven't had since Moreno.
But the offensive line will have new additions, and even if those are improvements as well, for some time now the O-line hasn't been the kind of force that you need to win 10 games.
Clearly, the biggest lose will be AJ Green. For the past two years, we've had only one player that legitimately scared D coordinators, and now that player is gone.

Marlon Brown should step up (I think the notion that he was lost in Green's shadow has some merit), but even if he does, Green is a once in a generation talent that can't be easily replaced.
If you concede the point that Bobo hasn't been great in his time as OC, then the major question is this: can Bobo develop as an OC?
The offense has to be more balanced and unpredictable. In addition to that, it has to start winning the line of scrimmage on 85% of the plays. Too often in the past two years has our QB had to evade pressure or our RB get hit either at the line or only a few yards past it. If Georgia's offense is to succeed (And I fear that while the D will improve, it will still experience hiccups. More on that later.), then it will have to do the aforementioned things.

My gut tells me that even with the loss of Green, Bobo will make changes, Richt will influence the scheme, and the new S&C program will be evident in many ways. However, while I do think 2011 will reveal a better offense, I still think we'll struggle at times against the better defenses.
We'll see two of those quite early. How the offense performs against Boise St. and South Carolina will be indicative of what the rest of the season holds. Impress in those games, and 2011 could follow the "Dream Team" with a dream season. But if we see the same old predictability and schematic deficiencies, then we'll finish 8-4 at best.